Similar Historical Prospects: Dalvin Cook, LaDainian Tomlinsonīreece Hall is a fantastic running back prospect. What follows are some of the most notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2022 NFL draft. The prospect's receiving yards per game in his college career.The prospect's "AOEPS," which measures how much, on average, the prospect's team used him in the running game during his career relative to the usage of an average drafted running back during the same year of eligibility.The prospect's yards per attempt with an adjustment for running backs that had fewer career carries than an average drafted running back.
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If he did not run at the combine, BackCAST uses his pro day time.
The two factors significant in predicting RecIndex are receiving yards per game in college and weight, as smaller players are likely to be receiving backs.īackCAST is based on a statistical analysis of all of the Division I halfbacks drafted in the years 1998–2019, and measures the following: In short, RecIndex measures the likelihood that the player records a disproportionately high or low number of receiving yards versus his rushing yards. For example, a running back with a +50% BackCAST is projected to gain 50% more yards than the "average" drafted running back.īackCAST also includes "RecIndex," which measures whether the player is likely to be a ground-and-pound two-down back, a player who catches passes out of the backfield more often than he takes handoffs, or something in between. BackCAST considers these factors and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an "average" drafted running back during his first five years in the NFL. Historically, a college running back who has a good size-speed combination, has a high average yards per carry, and represented a large percentage of his college team's running attack is likely to succeed at the NFL level. Taylor's recent success begs the question: are there any underrated running back prospects in the 2022 NFL draft who also have superstar potential? Fortunately for running back-needy teams, the answer is "yes," with this year's prospects highlighted by Iowa State's Hall.Īs always, Football Outsiders' 2022 NFL draft coverage is presented by Underdog Fantasy!īackCAST projects NFL running back success based on statistics that have correlated with success in the past. According to BackCAST, Taylor was not just another Wisconsin running back due to fail, but a stellar prospect with an unusual blend of size, speed, and college production. Taylor had the best BackCAST projection of all time. Although both of these players may ultimately become solid contributors, Taylor currently has more rushing yards than both of them combined.Īlthough many scouts underrated Taylor, BackCAST, Football Outsiders' system for projecting running backs, identified Taylor as a potential star. Although Taylor had a relatively high draft positon-41st overall-he was only the third running back taken, after the Kansas City Chiefs took Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the Detroit Lions selected D'Andre Swift.
He gained more than 2,000 all-purpose yards in 2021 and finished second in voting for AP Offensive Player of the Year. Taylor is already destroying the NFL in only his second year.
NFL Draft - Could Breece Hall be the next Jonathan Taylor?
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